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One acute adventitious aftereffect of the Colombian accord activity has been a billow in the targeted killing of bounded association leaders, with over 500 assassinated back 2011. Leaders tend to be killed by armed groups afar from the accord activity that aim to baffle noncombatant mobilisation in adjustment to consolidate ascendancy over aforetime FARC-held areas. Those areas with college administrative disability and area beggared farmers accept amorphous to accost their acreage ache the most. This shows how abridged accord agreements can aback access crisis by triggering agitated territorial contestation, write Mounu Prem, Andrés Rivera, Dario Romero, and Juan Vargas.
Peace agreements are usually amiss and far from comprehensive. They charge to abode the specificities of accurate conflicts and are shaped by political constraints both centralized and external. The abundant challenges of peacemaking are acceptable to be affronted back accord deals are fabricated with alone some of the armed groups involved in a multi-actor centralized conflict.
An abridged accord can inadvertently fuel violence (DJ Lu, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0, adapted to advance checkerboard effect)
Colombia is a case in point. The contempo accord activity amid the government and the Revolutionary Armed Armament of Colombia (FARC) – amorphous secretly in 2011 and assured in 2016 – afar added groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN), criminal groups emerging out of paramilitary forces, and FARC dissidents against to a accord agreement.
We abstraction the adventitious abrogating after-effects generated by this fractional accord activity in a contempo paper, focusing accurately on the analytical killing of bounded amusing leaders which has taken abode over the aftermost few years.
From January 2011 to December 2017 about 500 amusing leaders were dead in Colombia. There appears to accept been a cogent access in killings back the alpha of 2015 (see below), additionally the point at which the FARC implemented a abiding armistice aural the framework of the accord activity (indicated by the vertical dotted line).
As government armament abundantly bootless to absorb and body institutional accommodation in FARC’s above strongholds, we altercate that the armistice created a exhaustion of adeptness in these admired territories that added armed groups rushed to fill.
Targeting amusing leaders constitutes a grimly able activity for this affectionate of territorial advancement in civilian wars. By killing bounded amusing leaders, added armed groups abate aggregate activity from communities and thereby access their own adeptness to exercise ascendancy locally.
Specifically, we show that afterwards the alpha of FARC’s abiding armistice the killing of amusing leaders added disproportionately in ahead FARC-dominated zones in the adjacency of areas area added armed groups were present.
As the graph beneath shows, back the abiding armistice is appear (vertical line), the cardinal of amusing leaders dead charcoal about connected in municipalities that accept above-mentioned FARC attendance but are not apparent to the access of added armed groups. In contrast, the cardinal of killings increases badly in areas both controlled by FARC and apparent to the access of added armed groups.
Consistent with our interpretation, we acquisition that the killing of amusing leaders is not explained by a cogwheel change in the all-embracing assassination rate. Thus, the post-ceasefire acceleration is explained neither as allotment of a jump in aimless killings of civilians or a cogwheel change in advertisement ante for ahead FARC-controlled areas. Beyond this, we additionally appearance that the killing of leaders is affronted in areas with aerial appeal for acreage amends and weaker accompaniment accommodation in the anatomy of an inefficient bounded judiciary.
Overall, the killing of amusing leaders, we argue, constitutes an adventitious abrogating aftereffect of a fractional abatement activity that was not accompanied by an accomplishment to consolidate accompaniment ascendancy in above FARC strongholds.
Though the celebrated acceding amid the government and the FARC in 2016 represented a amazing befalling to accomplish a abiding peace, we abhorrence that this access in killings of amusing leaders may mark the alpha of a new and added adult date of amusing disruption in Colombia. We can alone achievement that time will prove us wrong.
• The angle bidding actuality are of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Centre or of the LSE
• Draws on the authors’ “Killing Amusing Leaders for Territorial Control: The Adventitious After-effects of Peace” (2018)
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Mounu Prem – Universidad del Rosario, Colombia
Mounu Prem works as an Adjunct Professor at the Economics Department in Universidad del Rosario. He holds a PhD in Economics from Stanford University and a M.A. and B.A. in Economics from PUC Chile. His analysis interests are in Political Economy, Development Economics, and Corporate Finance. He has focused his analysis on belief the bread-and-butter and political bequest of Pinochet’s dictatorship, the aftereffect of anti-corruption audits in the clandestine sector, the allocation of accessible area jobs, and the role of centralized markets in business groups.
Andrés Rivera – Universidad del Rosario, Colombia
Andrés Rivera is a Economics Ph.D apprentice at Universidad del Rosario, in Colombia. His analysis absorption is in the political abridgement of civilian conflicts, decidedly in Colombia.
Dario Romero – Columbia University
Dario Romero is a Economics Ph.D apprentice at Columbia University in New York. His analysis interests are in political economy, development economics, and activated microeconomics. He has focused his analysis on the bread-and-butter and political after-effects of battle and crime, and he has formed on evaluations for apprenticeship behavior in Latin America.
Juan Vargas – Universidad del Rosario, Colombia
Juan Vargas is Professor of Economics at Universidad del Rosario, Colombia. He holds a PhD in Economics from Royal Holloway, University of London (2007) and has captivated visiting positions at Harvard University, UCLA, the Institute of Development Studies and the IADB. His capital interests are in the areas of political abridgement and development, absorption decidedly on the causes and after-effects of agitated armed conflict, the economics of abomination and the coaction amid political and bread-and-butter institutions. He is Associate Editor of Conflict Management and Accord Science, Peace Economics, Accord Science and Accessible Policy, Defense and Accord Economics, and Economics for Accord and Security Journal. His research has appeared in associate analysis journals such as The Analysis of Bread-and-butter Studies, American Political Science Review, The Bread-and-butter Journal, Management Science, Journal of Bread-and-butter Behavior and Organization and Science among added journals.